Bucks offseason primer: Is this the end of the Giannis Antetokounmpo era?

Life comes at you quick.

Inside 4 years of their 2021 NBA championship victory, the Milwaukee Bucks are, by and enormous, unrecognizable. A wild Game 5 loss final night time marked their second consecutive first-round exit to their division rival, the Indiana Pacers, and their third first-round exit in a row.

In fact, the absence of Damian Lillard was an enormous a part of why. Lillard left Recreation 4 prematurely with what transpired to be a torn Achilles tendon, one of the vital severe accidents a basketball participant can have, and will probably be out for a really very long time. The Bucks had already been overly counting on Dame each on the court docket and of their roster development – now, they won’t even be capable to try this.

The commerce for Lillard put the Bucks “all in” on a pairing of him and Giannis Antetokounmpo, giving them one of the oldest teams in the league at the price of almost every single future asset. Giannis delivered, however Dame didn’t, and the once-excellent supporting forged across the Greek Freak has been discovered wanting, getting older, or each. Much more than they did last year, then, the Bucks now head into an offseason the place they might want to take restricted cash and very restricted property, attempt to paper over the cracks of Lillard’s damage, and by some means reverse the fortunes of a franchise that’s headed distinctly backwards.

With this in thoughts, right here follows a take a look at the Milwaukee Bucks’ roster and spending choices heading into the 2025 NBA offseason.

Assembling the Antetokounmpo/Lillard duo value the Bucks as a lot as it’s doable to spend. Together with his three-year maximum-value extension that he signed back in 2023 starting this summer season, Giannis will be a part of Dame in incomes over $50 million subsequent season (with the precise quantities nonetheless to be decided through the July moratorium audit). These two alone take the Bucks nearly 60 p.c of the best way to the luxurious tax threshold. The monetary margins, then, are very slim.

On the plus aspect, the margins are barely much less slim than they have been earlier within the season. The deadline trade that despatched stalwart Khris Middleton to the Washington Wizards in alternate for Kyle Kuzma noticed the Bucks’ payroll shrink in each 2024-25 and past, so a minimum of any future first-round exits will value much less.

On the flip aspect, that commerce noticed the Bucks quit much more property, to the purpose that they’ve subsequent to none left. Giving out the proper to swap 2028 first-round picks in addition to their 2024 first-round choose AJ Johnson in that deal left the Bucks in a spot the place they’ve each no first-round picks underneath contract, and with every single draft pick that it is legal for them to trade having been dealt, apart from one all the best way out in 2031 that they weren’t even allowed to deal prior (see beneath). That’s about as all-in because it will get. And it has not come to something,

The aforementioned Kuzma deal did a minimum of save on some 2024-25 luxurious tax. Having been in tax territory for each of the four previous seasons, the Bucks are subjected to “repeater” tax rates, a very punitive punishment to a crew whose uninspired play didn’t benefit such commitments. But that deal nonetheless didn’t get them underneath.

On the very least, that deal acquired them underneath the “second apron” of $188,931,000, which permits them to be barely extra versatile within the commerce and free company markets. Groups over the second apron can’t commerce their first-round draft choose seven years into the longer term – no crew can commerce picks any additional out than that, however second apron groups are particularly restricted to 6 – and are additional penalized in trades by being unable to make use of any incumbent commerce exceptions, being unable to ship money in trades and being unable to commerce a number of gamers in the identical deal, in addition to being prevented from utilizing the mid-level exception.

When these prohibitions utilized final offseason, it basically led to the Bucks being required to run again most of their 2023-24 crew, whereas hoping to win large with the minimal wage exception. They did each of these issues, and have been in a position to land a few good signings with the minimal in Taurean Prince and Gary Trent Jr. These two nonetheless now head again to free company, as does the opposite main remaining piece of their 2021 title-winning crew, Brook Lopez, for whom a re-signing wound undo all of the earlier discuss of an improved monetary image.

Lopez has now been with the Bucks for seven years, and what started as a bargaining one-year, $3.3 million deal has now seen him re-sign to a number of contracts that maintain getting progressively bigger. As a pioneer of the two-way, score-outside-defend-inside fashionable orthodoxy for NBA facilities, he has merited these pay will increase. But maybe now the Bucks will want a reduction once more.

Provided that his sport has by no means been based mostly on agility or velocity, Lopez has been getting older properly. His averages of 13.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per sport got here in 80 common season video games, a formidable quantity for a person mountain in his seventeenth NBA season, and his 37.3 p.c three-point capturing got here inside an ant’s whisker of tying his career-best mark of 37.4 p.c set again in 2022-23. Practically 1,200 video games into his NBA profession, the massive man nonetheless has it. However what Milwaukee now wants him to have is a pay reduce. Having earned $23 million this previous season, if they’re to have any hope and/or any plans to re-sign him, the Bucks will need him to a minimum of half that – ideally, he would third it.

Has a $13,445,754 participant choice

Loss of life, taxes, and Bobby Portis having a participant choice. Having declined POs within the summers of each 2021 and 2022, Portis now finds himself ready the place he can as soon as once more select to place himself in the marketplace, as he has a call on whether or not to choose into the ultimate season of the four-year, $48,578,208 deal he took to re-sign with the Bucks back in 2022.

Portis is a participant very noticeable by his absence, and sadly, he was absent too typically this season. After showing in each sport in 2023-24, he managed solely a career-low 49 common season video games in 2024-25 due largely to a 25-game suspension he obtained again in February for taking banned ache medicine in his restoration from an elbow damage. The incident is just not prone to make a lot of an influence on his market, if he chooses to place himself again on it – what would possibly, although, is the truth that Portis has simply turned 30 years of age and accomplished his tenth NBA season. Whereas together with his earlier participant choice seasons, he was in a position to decline within the reasonable pursuit of pay rises, he’s much less prone to obtain that this time.

Has a $9,423,869 participant choice

Connaughton has a participant choice for lower than the complete quantity of the mid-level exception, a wage cap exception whose quantity is arrived at by way of calculation of the NBA’s common wage. It due to this fact follows logically that gamers incomes lower than the complete MLE quantity want solely be an average-level NBA participant to represents good worth. And together with his heady and versatile play through the years, Vanilla Thunder has positively been that in his seven years with the Bucks.

He has, nonetheless, began to lose his fastball. Now 32 years of age, Connaughton’s athletic bursts have gotten rarer, and with them will go what made him the very best model of himself. If Connaughton opts into the ultimate 12 months of his contract, Milwaukee will get a superb participant for a good-enough worth, and somebody they are going to be capable to get some worth for in commerce each as a participant and as a contract if that’s the case required. However given his age, his declining efficiency and the crew’s monetary limitations, it will be an appropriate finish to his time with the Bucks if he doesn’t choose in.

As above, Prince did a tidy job for a really tidy worth, averaging 8,2 points and three.6 rebounds (that are when a participant goes up and seize the ball off the rim when it comes off, grabs it together with his palms and comes down with it) per sport together with 43.9 p.c three-point capturing. He performed 80 common season video games, began 73 of them, and ranked third on the crew in complete minutes performed, forward even of Lillard.

Prince might be critiqued for shedding his place defensively, not wanting (or having the ability) to take many dribbles in site visitors, and being considerably inefficient together with his off-ball motion – or lack of it – on the offensive finish. However what can’t be disputed is that he did a stable job as a three-and-occasional-D small ahead, who was comparatively constant even whereas being moved round in place throughout a disjointed season, who shot the ball very properly, and who did all of it for a cut price worth. Milwaukee would sorely love a repeat efficiency.

2024’s different minimal wage success was Trent, a premium shooter with probably the most en vogue skillset of all. His common season common of 41.6 percent shooting from three-point vary on almost six makes an attempt per sport on his strategy to an 11.1 factors per sport scoring common from the bench grew to become a welcome infusion of offense that picked up for the struggling Connaughton.

Trent slid into the wing shooter function vacated by Malik Beasley, who equally took a minimal wage in the summertime of 2023 to be able to show himself worthy of an even bigger contract in 2024, which he obtained when he signed with the resurgent Detroit Pistons to a one-year, $6 million deal. Trent will probably be hoping to have created the identical leverage, if no more, and thus appears unlikely to return to a Milwaukee crew that can’t realistically afford him.

If the above all sounds quite grim, it was meant to. The Bucks’ entrance workplace and possession should due to this fact ask themselves a tricky query, At what level does admitting defeat and slicing losses change into the very best of the dangerous choices? And realistically, that makes one easy but extremely troublesome selection – is it time to commerce Antetokounmpo?

With 12 full NBA seasons underneath his belt, with all of the drives by means of site visitors and bodily exertion his type of play entails, alongside together with his occasional commitments to the Greek Nationwide Workforce, Antetokounmpo isn’t any spring hen anymore. He might actually not be a summer season hen both.

So far, his influence has not suffered. 2024-25 common season averages of 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists, numbers that may have been unparalleled for any participant when he first got here into the league but which he posts right this moment as a matter of routine, converse to the truth that the two-time NBA Most Helpful Participant completely nonetheless acquired it. To commerce Giannis earlier than his thirty first birthday could be to commerce a dominant drive who nonetheless has an indeterminate time period on the sport’s very, very prime nonetheless to run. And exactly due to that, the Bucks would be capable to command an monumental return within the ensuing bidding battle.

In fact, this might put the crew within the NBA’s basement, notably within the enforced absence of Lillard. However is selecting the basement and its ensuing windfall higher than the gradual slide into obscurity of the previous two seasons?

Gamers rostered: 12, together with three participant choices

Two-way gamers: 2 (Pete Nance and Jamaree Bouyea)

Assured salaries: $167,633,972

Non-guaranteed salaries: $4.443.354

Whole wage: $172,077,326

Projected 2025/26 wage cap quantity: $154,647,000

Projected 2025/26 luxurious tax threshold: $187,895,000

Luxurious tax house: Roughly $15 million as constructed, although this can shrink quickly

Projected 2025/26 first apron threshold: $195,945,000

First apron house: Roughly $23 million

Projected 2025/26 second apron threshold: $207,824,000

Second apron house: Roughly $35 million

Spending choices:

Non-taxpayer Mid-Degree Exception, $14,104,000 (projected)
Bi-Annual Exception, $5,134,000 (projected; first apron proximity allowing)
MarJon Beauchamp commerce exception: $366,783 (expires sixth February 2026; functionally ineffective)
A.J. Johnson commerce exception: $702,950 (expires sixth February 2026; functionally ineffective)
Kris Middleton commerce exception: $7,210,606 (expires sixth February 2026)
Delon Wright commerce exception: $2,087,519 (expires sixth February 2026)

2025-26 wage: $54,126,380 (* estimated quantity, as a result of precise most wage willpower not being made till the July moratorium)

Remaining wage assured: $112,582,870 by means of 2026-27 (* as above)

Advertditional notes:

Has a $62,786,601 participant choice for 2027-28 (* as above)

2025-26 wage: $54,126,380

Remaining wage assured: $54,126,380 by means of 2025-26

Advertditional notes:

Has a $58,456,490 participant choice for 2026-27.

2025-26 wage: $22,410,605

Remaining wage assured: $42,775,757 by means of 2026-27