We’re staring down the penultimate weekend of Super Rugby Pacific as soon as once more, and it’s a frustratingly acquainted view for Australian followers.
As was the case by the primary three seasons of the brand new competitors, the ACT Brumbies are once more heading to New Zealand for a semi-final, whereas the Queensland Reds are a few days into their post-season overview after crashing out within the first week of the finals collection for the fourth straight yr.
Although the Western Force and New South Wales Waratahs confirmed loads of promise in 2025, together with the not insignificant feat of all 4 Australian sides occupying top-six locations for 5 weeks mid-season, their incapability to see out video games and discover wins when put underneath strain in the end left them in need of the play-offs.
Each the Drive and Waratahs could have already turned their consideration in direction of forthcoming matches towards the British & Irish Lions. Their 2026 planning will start in earnest quickly after, with the precedence to establish their greatest areas of concern and repair them up earlier than subsequent February.
For the opposite Australian groups, outcomes of the primary weekend of finals went in several instructions, with the Brumbies confirming a semi-final date with the Chiefs in Hamilton this Saturday, and the Reds left to ponder the place all of it went fallacious, but once more, on the identical stage.
Each the Brumbies and Reds face questions after the Qualifying Finals, however solely the ACT facet will get an opportunity to handle theirs straightaway.
The brand new six-team Tremendous Rugby finals format has copped warmth after the unlikeliest of situations uncovered a perceived flaw, with the first-placed Chiefs allowed to host a semi-final regardless of shedding to the sixth-placed Blues. The Brumbies’ reward for beating the Hurricanes in Canberra is to move to Hamilton and face these wounded Chiefs, and never host one other knockout sport in Canberra as many imagine they need to.
Whatever the venue, and the journey concerned to get there, there’s a few questions the Brumbies have to sort out this week.
Can they repair their lineout points? (which aren’t new)
The Brumbies misplaced 4 lineouts of their 35-28 win over the Hurricanes in Canberra. All of them have been to overthrows, from each beginning hooker Billy Pollard and alternative Lachie Lonergan. Luckily, they nonetheless gained one other 14 themselves, the identical quantity because the Hurricanes.
And that’s price noting, as a result of when the 2 groups met again in Spherical 11 – a 35-29 win to the Hurricanes – the Brumbies had solely seven lineouts within the match. Coupled with 40 per cent shares of each possession and territory, largely eradicating their principal supply to launch assaults was a significant motive the ‘Canes have been in a position to get away early.
The overthrows have been undoubtedly irritating, however worryingly, aren’t a brand new factor. Regardless of having the most effective lineout success fee in Tremendous Rugby, ACT have needed to take care of flaky lineout moments all through the season.
As expansive and entertaining as Tremendous Rugby has been in 2025, it’s notable the groups successful the Qualifying Finals all did it by their energy sport.
Curiously, Pollard, forwards coach Ben Mowen and head coach Stephen Larkham all pointed post-match to the identical repair for his or her throwing ills: repetitions at coaching.
“Some weeks we’re good, some weeks we’re a bit bit off,” Larkham mentioned. “We’ll return by the overview course of and we’ll establish whether or not it was the throw or the decision, and it’ll be a unique plan for the Chiefs. There’ll be completely different threats subsequent week.
“We’ve confronted a number of of those by the season already; it’ll be the identical course of to go about fixing it.”
They usually might want to repair it, doubtless. Whereas the Brumbies have been prime of the lineout tree for many of the season, and so they’re near the highest when it comes to successful opposition ball, the closest staff to them on that measure is… the Chiefs.
However the Blues additionally gave the Brumbies a blueprint to beating the Chiefs, stealing 4 of the Chiefs’ 11 lineout throws whereas securing 16 of their very own of their last-ditch 20-19 win in Hamilton.
The Chiefs additionally performed a surprisingly slender sport that appeared to play into the Blues defence, which additionally inspired the Blues to ramp up their energy sport and blow by the center of the Chiefs for the win.
The Brumbies additionally had three first-half energy tries on the board themselves, Pollard twice steering the lineout drive over, and skipper Allan Ala’alatoa barging by for his eighth strive of the season from shut vary.
As expansive and entertaining as Tremendous Rugby has been in 2025, it’s notable the groups successful the Qualifying Finals all did it by their energy sport. The Brumbies lineout drives theirs, so fixing the problems that crept again in on Saturday is crucial in the event that they need to attain the ultimate.
Are ACT ok to take the subsequent step at their fourth try?
The Brumbies are giving themselves each likelihood for fulfillment, heading to New Zealand early on Wednesday and finalising preparations over the next two days earlier than Saturday’s semi-final.
Regardless that a Brumbies win, and a Blues win over Crusaders in Christchurch on Friday, would ship a house remaining again in Canberra, Larkham revealed his travelling occasion will depart able to spend 10 days in New Zealand.
If they are often the primary ACT facet to win in Auckland in 12 years, why can’t they be the primary Australian staff ever to win a finals match over the ditch as properly?
“We noticed it earlier within the season the place we performed the Chiefs into the Blues, Rounds 3 and 4, and staying over there was actually helpful for us,” he mentioned, referencing how his facet gained 21-20 in Auckland six days after a 49-34 loss to the Chiefs. “We in all probability caught the Blues hopping a bit bit, not fairly on their sport in the beginning of the season, nevertheless it was a extremely good preparation from our perspective.”
Having recorded their first win at Eden Park since 2013, the Brumbies will take confidence from successful strain video games into the semi-final. If they are often the primary ACT facet to win in Auckland in 12 years, why can’t they be the primary Australian staff ever to win a finals match over the ditch as properly?
Definitely, they’re enjoying properly sufficient. Tightening up their defence has halved the quantity factors conceded within the second half of the season, and their energy sport has been delivering when it issues.
“Not letting them in (to your personal 22) is the simplest method to cease the Brumbies maul,” Hurricanes coach Clark Laidlaw volunteered after his facet’s defeat on Saturday. “As soon as they’re in there, with the trendy guidelines and the offsides, the pick-and-go, it’s actually tough to then cling in there and preserve groups out.
“Simply have a look at the Blues (towards Chiefs). They simply go a number of penalties, a number of offsides, benefits. It’s a extremely tough a part of the sport when you let groups in.”
In order that they have the instruments accessible, and so they actually gained’t be as free once more as they have been within the Hamilton loss again in Spherical 3. Whether or not they get themselves into place to safe one other piece of historical past, that’s what Australian rugby is sweating on.
Are the Reds good sufficient to adapt game-plan when their assault is nullified?
A disappointing exhibiting for the Queensland Reds noticed them exit within the first week of the Qualifying Sequence for a fourth straight yr, happening 32-12 to the Crusaders in a contest the place their solely factors got here within the final 10 minutes, lengthy after the sport was determined.
It places important strain on Les Kiss now, who after being unveiled because the Wallabies coach for subsequent yr, nonetheless has to supply a Tremendous Rugby season that matches expectations of the present enjoying group.
The Reds misplaced six video games earlier than the play-offs, and other than the defeat by the Fijian Drua in Suva in Spherical 12, the opposite 5 bear additional inspection.
For all of the complaints about Crusaders gamers continually being off their ft on the breakdown, none of them recognised this was one more smarter breakdown staff pushing the restrict of what they may get away with.
These 5 losses – to Crusaders in Spherical 4, the Chiefs and Brumbies (Rounds 9 & 10), and the Brumbies and Hurricanes (Rounds 14 & 15) – shared the identical traits and failings as Friday’s defeat by the Crusaders.
Placing apart the purpose that each one of these losses got here towards higher-ranked groups, the widespread factor in every was a powerful breakdown staff pressuring the Reds on the ruck contest, slowing down the provision of fast ball that scrum-half Tate McDermott and the Reds’ sport is constructed round, requiring extra attacking gamers for a clean-out, which in flip leaves fewer gamers accessible for the subsequent ruck, and thus open to turnover.
Equally, in defence, the Reds discovered their on-ballers underneath fixed strain from waves of clean-out, thus additional nullifying the influence of Fraser McReight and firm.
The highest groups knew this and as soon as they’d neutered these hallmarks of the Reds sport, it was only a matter of letting the scoreboard get away from them.
For all of the complaints about Crusaders gamers continually being off their ft on the breakdown, none of them recognised this was one more smarter breakdown staff pushing the restrict of what they may get away with.
And whether or not that’s right officiating or not (I’d argue the referee in query and several other of his countrymen have allowed this all season), the purpose is that it was a identified entity and the Reds couldn’t adapt to the sport being performed in entrance of them.
Smarter groups make these adaptions. Stronger breakdown groups work out methods to counter these strategies, on both facet of the ball.
Why can’t this enjoying group get previous the primary week of finals?
That incapability to adapt partly solutions this second query, and on the proof of this and the previous couple of years, it’s laborious to see how this present Queensland squad reaches the highest 4, the semi-finals and past.
A lot of this group have performed plenty of rugby collectively, a lot of them tracing their routes again a decade or extra through the Reds academy, the 2 Queensland NRC groups, and even Junior Wallabies campaigns.
Including the standard personnel they did in 2025 solely made them stronger throughout the squad, but the identical points prevail. Throw in a scrum that went backwards from the outset on Friday, basically, and it’s one more query for them to reply.
Accidents rapidly get thrown up at factors like this, however the actuality is the Reds’ damage record is not than any of the opposite prime groups concerned in finals on the weekend. Queensland’s 38 gamers utilized in 2025 mirrors the tallies of the Chiefs and Blues, and trails each the Hurricanes (39) and Crusaders (40). Solely the Brumbies’ 34 differs on this entrance.
When Brad Thorn introduced in 2023 that he wouldn’t be persevering with as Queensland coach, he was requested if the enjoying group wanted a brand new voice after his six years in cost.
“Yeah, presumably,” Thorn mentioned in in a usually selfless response. “No matter is nice for the membership, and a change is nearly as good as something. For each me and the membership.”
There’s now a nationwide highlight on regardless of the Reds can or can’t obtain in 2026.
A famous competitor, who as participant thrived on physicality that he then labored laborious on putting in in groups he coached, Thorn’s phrases two years later carry an intriguing sub-plot to them. Did his strategies attain their use-by date with this group, or have been they not really outfitted to achieve the degrees of physicality he wished?
Having beforehand written of the Reds’ decrease gainline success fee relative to the remainder of the competitors, these questions round their breakdown capabilities make me marvel about this enjoying group much more now.
And it’s not simply Queensland followers that have to see these enhancements both. There’s now a nationwide highlight on regardless of the Reds can or can’t obtain in 2026.
