The outdated foes are set for a blockbuster semi-final in Christchurch, and the stats present this yr’s Crusaders and Blues aren’t as completely different as one may anticipate.
The Crusaders earned their place within the semis with a complete house win over the Reds, whereas the Blues shocked a Hamilton crowd with a clutch win over the closely favoured Chiefs. The Blues will nonetheless enter the second week of the playoffs as underdogs – harmful underdogs.
Historical past actually favours the hosts this weekend, given they’ve received 21 of their final 23 video games in opposition to the Aucklanders and 30 consecutive playoff video games on their present house area, whereas the Blues are but to win back-to-back away video games in 2025.
So, what areas will resolve the competition?
Strengths
The Blues have retained the bones of their 2024 title-winning sport plan, however have discovered much less success with it in 2025. Which means they nonetheless play tighter to the ruck than any opponent, and have the very best gainline success fee in Tremendous Rugby.
Their defence is extra correct than final season, regardless of making over 20 extra tackles per sport. The Blues are making the third-most tackles week-to-week whereas lacking the third least.
The Crusaders take advantage of tackles within the competitors, nonetheless at a good fee, and are much better at successful turnovers. On assault, the Crusaders are at their finest when trying to evade tackles quite than energy by them, and are by far the most effective within the competitors at changing each linebreaks and 22 entries into factors.
Weaknesses
The Crusaders are lacking dominant ball carriers, with relatively low gainline and dominant carry numbers on the season – an injury to Tamaiti Williams compounds that weak point this weekend.
The hosts even have poor 22 exit numbers, maybe as a symptom of their younger playmakers, regardless of being comparatively conservative with their exit technique, favouring a clearance kick greater than an bold run.
The Blues are making 1.5 fewer linebreaks per sport than they had been a season in the past, making them the second-worst staff within the comp in that space. That stat is a contributing issue to the Aucklanders making the least carry metres within the competitors. The Blues have additionally been penalised the second most of any membership in 2025.
This staff simply has not been scoring factors at a fee wherever close to similar to what they achieved in 2024, dropping from 35 per sport to only 27, regardless of a extra dynamic competitors seeing many different groups enhance their scoring common.
Similarities
Either side like to assault blindside, trying to the brief edge extra typically than some other staff. Their set-piece success numbers are very related, in each the scrum and lineout.
Each outfits are very environment friendly with their offload sport, however are comparatively unlikely to have these offloads lead on to breaks or factors.
Each assaults are barely extra more likely to rating factors within the first half and boast related 22 entries per sport.
Each defences are stone-walled near their very own line, conceding the fewest factors per opposition 22 entry within the competitors.
The Blues love attacking in tight, making the fewest passes within the comp, being by far the least more likely to ship the ball previous the primary receiver and being the least more likely to rating on first part.
The Crusaders’ assault profile exhibits additionally they favour tight carries, however usually tend to then ship it vast, with second five-eighth David Havili at his finest in a distributor function, and the tempo of their exterior backs, together with centre Braydon Ennor, proving to be damaging strike weapons.
What to look for
The Bues have named Zarn Sullivan at fullback for the sport, maybe a sign that they are going to look to pin the Crusaders deep in their very own territory with correct, tactical kicking. Beauden Barrett has excelled at that sport in 2025.
Some fairly outstanding territory numbers emerged from the final assembly between the 2 sides in spherical 10, when Barrett’s 11 kicks helped his aspect dominate area place with a 67 per cent territorial benefit. A whopping 50 per cent of the Blues’ possession was performed contained in the Crusaders’ 22.
It was a outstanding sport, with only one linebreak registered by the Aucklanders and two from the Cantabrians. The Blues succumbed to twenty turnovers however greater than doubled their opponents’ post-contact metres on practically double the variety of carries. The Crusaders are twice as doubtless because the Blues to attain off turnovers this season.
The Crusaders performed the majority of their possession in the midst of the park, but emerged as victors by repelling effort after effort earlier than James O’Connor landed a game-winning penalty kick.
The Blues’ lineout defence was on fireplace in opposition to the Chiefs, and can come up in opposition to a Crusaders unit that has a transparent choice for throwing to the entrance, the place Laghlan McWhannell was harmful within the Qualifying Closing. Of their final assembly, it was the Blues’ lineout that operated extra effectively.
